Conspiracy theories

[philmophlegm]

I see that the Bilderberg Group is meeting in Watford today. (Seriously, Watford? If I secretly ruled the world, I certainly wouldn't hold meetings in Watford.) Of course this group is one of the most popular targets for conspiracy theorist nutters.

However, if there are lots and lots of conspiracy theories, each with only a small probability of being true, that might still mean that one or two of them are likely to be true. So, what follows is a poll. Which of these popular conspiracy theories do you think might have a grain of truth behind them?


[Poll #1917658][Poll #1917658]

Comments

[steer.livejournal.com]

Lest I appear a lunatic, I feel sure the CIA drug trafficking isn't "they dole out drugs to keep the people oppressed" but instead things like the Iran-Contra affair and MK Ultra both of which are now "open" (ish). I am sure there are more occasions where they have been involved with drug trafficking inadvertently as part of other operations -- although probably nothing so lunatic as those two blasts from the past.


For the labour/TUC spy thing I don't have a specific person in mind but there's enough of this kind of story around:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/5200809/Former-KGB-colonel-says-he-paid-late-union-leader-Jack-Jones-200-for-information.html
that I guess at least one of them is true -- perhaps not an actual MP or TUC leader but someone moderately senior. It is clear the KGB did try to offer money to such senior figures. Balance of probabilities seems to be that at some point they probably succeeded.

[steer.livejournal.com]

Oh and I think the Blair/Bush weapons of mass destruction is probably somewhere between "lie" and "wishful thinking" -- I believe they were completely convinced Sadaam was much more tooled up than he really was. I believe they exaggerated that threat further and were caught out ridiculously when it was found out that they were exaggerating exaggerations.

[steer.livejournal.com]

You missed out "MiBs may surround your house as a result of answers given in this poll."

[ford-prefect42.livejournal.com]

I answered yes to almost all of them. Mainly because when you use terms like "might have some truth to them", there's not much scientific reason to say "no". So the question gets to be one of probability. For instance, that Gagarin was only the first cosmonaut to survive is *very* probable. That the CIA was involved in drug trafficking is established fact, therefore it wouldn't be surprising if it still is. However, that their motivation would be controlling the AA population is wildly improbable.

[bart-calendar.livejournal.com]

The CIA is certainly involved in the narcotics trade, though I doubt there is any racism involved. They just need a way to funnel money into off the books operations and their basic skill set plus diplomatic immunity means that running drugs is the most effective way to do so.

[steer.livejournal.com]

Do you think running drugs is that profitable? I got the impression from elsewhere that actually, per employee it's actually pretty low profit -- the average worker does not make much. The impression that selling drugs is profitable comes from looking at the top of the chain -- a bit like thinking that working in a coffee shop was high-paying because the CEO of starbucks is wealthy. (See the essay "Why do drug dealers live with their moms?" in Freakonomics). If their motive was profit then a chain of dry cleaners (say) might be a better idea than narcotics.

Though I guess if the suggestion is that they blackmail high-level drug dealers for profit then that's a different thing.

[bart-calendar.livejournal.com]

I think producing large quantities of heroin in Afghanistan and moving it into the country on military planes is profitable.

[steer.livejournal.com]

An excellent point well made -- I was referring only to street level trading.

[wellinghall.livejournal.com]

"Which (if any) of the following conspiracy theories might have some truth to them?" looks (to me) like a slightly different question from "Which of these popular conspiracy theories do you think might have a grain of truth behind them?"

[philmophlegm.livejournal.com]

Yes, true. That's probably deliberate. Blame it on the orbiting mind control lasers.

[wellinghall.livejournal.com]

"Of course this group is one of the most popular targets for conspiracy theorist nutters."

I first tried to read that as, "Of course, the group of people reading this LJ is one of ... " ;-)

[wellinghall.livejournal.com]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22843943