Alternate history AKICOLJ

[philmophlegm]

Help me out with an alternate history scenario.

Alternate histories where Germany won the Second World War are pretty common - off the top of my head I can think of Robert Harris's 'Fatherland', Philip K. Dick's 'The Man in the High Castle' and that Star Trek episode with Joan Collins in it*. However, the scenario I need help with is one where Germany won the First World War.

What has happened is that the war of attrition of 1915 to 1917 dragged on into a stalemate. The United States stayed out of the war. The Russian Revolution happened as it had happened in our timeline. Germany was able to reduce British industrial capacity through Zeppelin raids. German U-Boats cut off the flow of raw materials from the British Empire. And slowly Germany was able to advance through France.

Britain and what is left of France and the rest of the allies surrender to Germany in 1934. Southern Britain is a lawless place with much of its infrastructure destroyed. Many people have fled to the north. The Royal Family has moved to Canada. Under the terms of the surrender, Ireland has been granted independence, guaranteed by Germany. Large parts of France have been carved off as vassal states of Germany, most notably Burgundy. The same has happened to Italy, with Lombardy now a separate kingdom subject to the German Kaiser.

That's about as far as I got. My question is: what does the world look like in 1935, with Germany the dominant European power?







* Well, ok that isn't actually set after a German victory, but it does show how the non-death of an American pacifist leads to German victory.

Comments

[lil-shepherd.livejournal.com]

I haven't actually read/seen that scenario, either. I think there are a number of ways it could actually go. I think Wilhelm might see himself as a new Holy Roman Emperor, but I'm not sure his ministers would go along with it. Considering the land grab in Africa just before the Great War, I suspect that Germany would have annexed a number of the more profitable French, English and Belgian colonies. They might well over-reach themselves there if they didn't keep their hands off the long-established and heavily settled ones. In fact, I could see the Canadians asking for US help, and that country finally fulfilling its long-held ambition to take over at least the Anglophone parts of that Dominion.

The Great Depression started in the US but I don't think Germany would be as deeply affected as it was in our time-line (being bankrupted by the allies as a consequence of the Treat of Versailles) and I don't think Hitler would be a figure of any consequence, with Fascism certainly rising but in Italy, Spain, France and the UK.

All this supposes that, seeing its great rival in chaos, Germany did not take on the Russian Communists...

It's a interesting area of speculation.

[(Anonymous)]

CheckboutvSaki "When William came". Also Niall Ferguson "the pity of war " has osome discussion about how much better history would have been if Britain had stayed out of the war and just let Germany win it. Neuromancer

[helflaed.livejournal.com]

What's happening in Central Europe? Have any states been able to break away from the old Russian Empire? If so, which, and with what borders? Have the Germans grabbed any land in the East, or are there now buffer states between them and the USSR?

How are minorities being treated, and how are they behaving? if, for example, Poland is still being ruled by the Germans, Austrians and Soviets then are they accepting of this or is there simmering resentment which could lead to anything from street protests or occasional acts of terror to outright rebellion. Or this could have happened in the past and been repressed?

Also, is Germany a nationalistic state, or have they moved back to the older Prussian model?

Incidentally, it could be interesting to read "When William Came" by Saki- written before WW1 it imagines Britain under German occupation and makes for a very interesting read, not least for the manner in which many parts of the population get on surprisingly well with their occupiers.

[bunn.livejournal.com]

I wonder if one reason this scenario is less common is that, since no Versailles, and presumably, no Hitler (at least as an important political figure) would probably mean no Holocaust and no Israel, hence less tension in the Middle East, and a large prosperous Jewish population in Germany helping to rebuild Europe instead...

A 20th century where Germany won WWI might look quite attractive from some perspectives, and clearly from a British/French/Russian point of view that's a bit of a disturbing thought.

Without the US, I'm a bit surprised that Britain managed to hang on as long as 1934, but maybe the 'flu epidemic of 1918-1919 hit both sides and delayed the German advance? I imagine it would have severely impacted the war effort, and given how many people it killed as it was, I imagine the impact would have been even worse if they'd tried to fight through it.

[bunn.livejournal.com]

We have a copy of 'When William Came' - good idea.

[philmophlegm.livejournal.com]

Yes, I can definitely see Germany taking the choicest (i.e. most easily manageable and richest in raw materials) colonies of the defeated powers, but as you say, that might stretch their capabilities. Perhaps this is what would push them into peace with the USSR.

I think a US that stayed out of the war would be one where the overwhelming sentiment was to avoid imperial entanglements. But would that change in response to a German victory? Hmmm...

Since Germany comes out of the war with preferred trade access to most of Europe and the ability to get raw materials cheaply from the defeated powers and their colonies, you could imagine that Germany would become quite prosperous in the years following the war. (In this scenario, the war has not long finished, but we'd be going in that direction.) German nationalist types would rejoice in the victory of the old regime, and would be unlikely to pursue National Socialism. So would the main opposition to Wilhelm's rule come from communists or democrats? That might depend on the situation in the USSR.

And if, as you say fascism and extreme nationalism rises in Italy, Spain, France and the UK, to what extent is that tolerated by Germany?

[philmophlegm.livejournal.com]

We actually have a copy of 'When William Came', so I'll check it out and I may look out for the Ferguson.

[philmophlegm.livejournal.com]

I imagine that the peace between Germany and the new USSR is secured by a similar treaty to Brest-Litovsk, with a buffer zone of neutral states between the two - although the buffer would be rather closer to Moscow than to Berlin I think.

[sashajwolf.livejournal.com]

Have you read A Peace to End All Peace by David Fromkin? It's a fascinating account of how wide-ranging the effects of the Versailles Treaty were; it might help you figure out what the effects of the outcome of WWI would be in your timeline. Especially recommended if you want to explore what happens in your version of the Middle East.

(Here via Andrew Ducker.)

[philmophlegm.livejournal.com]

The flu epidemic is a good point. Also, I wonder if an Imperialist Germany would open up new theatres in Africa in order to annex the colonies, accepting the stalemate on the western front.

[philmophlegm.livejournal.com]

I'll look out for it - thanks.

[kargicq.livejournal.com]

Cool. Sorry for cryptic note; I was on my phone. Neither of the ones i mentioned address anything like your scenario; I just mentioned them as "Germany won WWI" counterfactuals. "When William came", as I expect you know, was written before the war even started; as I understand it, he reckoned Britain's defence policy was too weak and wrote a novel about us losing a war with Germany to draw attention to his cause. Also, if you think the Guardian is anti-semitic (I don't, usually), this'll blow your socks off and not in a good way.

I found Ferguson's book hard to follow, but if I got him right, he is saying "the pity of war" is that Britain let itself get sucked into the war, thereby transforming it into a World War and indirectly leading to the Russian Revolution, Stalin, Hitler, death of millions, end of Empire etc etc, whereas if we'd just sat back, it would just have been some small central European spat which all got resolved within a year with no wider consequences. He doesn't really spell it out like that so I'd be interested in hearing from someone else if they reckon that's what he meant.

Neuromancer

[lil-shepherd.livejournal.com]

It was all about power politics. The Germans had been establishing colonies in Africa and building a huge Navy, both stepping on British interests. In the circumstances, once the Germans were in there was no way we were staying out...

[bunn.livejournal.com]

http://wwi.lib.byu.edu/index.php/The_Daily_Telegraph_Affair

might be interesting on Wilhelm's personal views towards the British, although of course these might be quite different by 1934. That's assuming of course that Wilhelm survived the war and so did the German monarchy...

[hano.livejournal.com]

(Here via Andrew D as well)
Seconding the Fromkin book, it's probably the best single volume on post-Versailles geopolitics. I have huge issues with Niall Ferguson. His earlier work is excellent especially on financial history, but goes rapidly downhill when he starts talking about World War One. His work is still useful in that it makes you look at events from a different perspective, but his conclusions are dubious at best and to me, disingenuous to say the least.

[philmophlegm.livejournal.com]

If the British royal family has buggered off to Canada, Wilhelm might press a claim to the British throne - had the new succession laws currently going through Parliament been in operation in 1900, Wilhelm would have become King of Great Britain on the death of his mother, who would have succeeded Queen Victoria and reigned as (presumably) Queen Victoria II for a few months in 1901.

[eledonecirrhosa.livejournal.com]

Aaargh! Typed a long reply then LJ ate it!

Short version... Russian Revolution caused Russians to go home and German troops from Eastern Front to be sent to Western Front to give the Allies a kicking. Could you beef up that kicking to give them victory?

Book suggestion - The Kaiser's Holocaust by David Olusoga and Casper Erichsen goes into the nastier aspects of 19th & pre WW1 German colonialism in southern Africa. Some inspiration there too?

[bart-calendar.livejournal.com]

Well, America probably doesn't become a global superpower or build a military industrial complex.

This means America gets the chance to head in a very socialist direction when the Great Depression happens.

That said, we still end up with a huge war down the line, because once Stalin comes into power in the USSR and starts with gulags and attempts to annex Eastern Euro states, Germany has the dominant power in Western Europe has to confront them.

At which point the US probably sides with Germany. During this crisis Germany wins by nuking Moscow and becomes the global nuclear superpower.

[pellegrina.livejournal.com]

If the US stayed out of the war, the German-speaking element of the population might have retained closer ties with the old country - there used to be numerous German language newspapers etc. which ended around the time of WW1.

[king-pellinor.livejournal.com]

The March 1918 offensive very nearly came to victory anyway. According to Haig's diaries (which I was reading recently, though I think it was only extracts) the French at least were getting very worried about Paris, and there was a debate about whether the BEF should fall back on the Channel or stick with the French army when the breakthrough came.

[king-pellinor.livejournal.com]

The US would have gotten very anti-German. They were quite anti-British due to concerns over imperialism (to be distinguished from the US having a sphere of influence and dependent states, which was an entirely different matter), and I'm sure that would have been transferred to Germany if she took over ex-Allied colonies.

[philmophlegm.livejournal.com]

That's an interesting point. In my scenario, I'm assuming no Lusitania.

[fanf]

Speaking of the Middle East, what happens to the Ottoman Empire in this scenario?

[philmophlegm.livejournal.com]

That makes some sort of sense. In fact, with the war raging in Europe throughout the 1920s, cutting off major export markets, does the Great Depression in the US start rather earlier?

[bart-calendar.livejournal.com]

Later because it would have taken longer for the stock bubble to build up and therefore later to burst.